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Non Ferrous Metals is Expected to Usher in a Stage Rebound

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the two quarter GDP year on year for 7%, is still in the doldrums, but the June data has improved. The growth rate of both than expected domestic import and export, export growth turned positive for the first time in four months, imports decline for the year minimum. Credit data to pick up, the new RMB credit and social financing scale both hit a high level in the year. By the market demand to pick up the drive, fixed asset investment and real estate investment is expected to reverse the downward trend. Real estate sales data improvement will be given to the important support of the domestic economy. Total retail sales of consumer goods to maintain rapid growth, consumer demand are expected to continue to play the role of stabilizer. In addition, the scale of industrial added value increased by three consecutive months. June China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is 50.2%, in a sustained slight expansion trend, the entity enterprise reform will become an important way and means to stimulate the economy again upward.
 
Although the two quarter economic data eased slightly, but the market is expected to improve the industrial season on demand for non-ferrous metals is not significantly improved, leading to a gradual decline in non-ferrous metals prices. The non-ferrous metal index fell sharply, fell to 2200 line.
 
From the latter part of the impact of non-ferrous metals prices of short-term factors: first, the domestic economic recovery in the three quarter of non-ferrous metals demand will support the price of non-ferrous metals. Two is the market interest rates in the United States are expected to continue to suppress the price of non-ferrous metals.
 
In the second half of the year, demand for non-ferrous metals will be in the third quarter has been restored, the overall price will be picked up by the demand for support, but the United States is expected to raise interest rates to suppress prices, the fourth quarter still fall risk. On the whole, we believe that the price of non-ferrous metals in the second half than the first half, but the overall is still in the bottom of the oscillation. The index of non-ferrous metals will build the bottom line in 2100, along with the recovery in demand, will bring a rebound stage.
 
Copper: the current domestic economic growth situation is grim, gloomy economic data in copper prices fell, but under the steady growth measures are expected to increase, the stock market continued to rise also to the futures market boost, early copper continued to rebound. Late concern whether the demand continues to pick up. In the second half of the economy and demand for copper will be better than the first half of the year, so the price fell space is limited. The LME index will be 4800 to 6000 U.S. dollars / ton to maintain the oscillation, copper index will be 35000 - 42000 yuan / ton fluctuations.
 
Aluminum: as of mid April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 36677000 tons, the operating capacity of 31441000 tons, the operating rate of 85.72%, the total operating capacity increased by 60000 tons over the previous week. Due to the sustained release of the Xinjiang region of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and downstream demand still haven't fully recovered, so the price of aluminum half will remain in the low oscillation situation is expected to Shanghai aluminum index interval running will be maintained at 12000 - 13500 yuan / ton.

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